tv Squawk Box CNBC February 1, 2013 6:00am-9:00am EST
good morning. the day's top stories, it is jobs friday. economists say likely 166,000 nonfarm payrolls were added last month. and it's official, the dow turning in its best january in 19 years. i don't know if i've ever seen an employment report on the very first day of the next month. but we're going to do it today
and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc on this jobs friday. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. and we are past the point of no return. we have a rocking lineup for you today. kelly king, the bb & c ceo, roche ceo chevron swan and houston texas owner robert mcnair. we have matt shattock. we're going to be covering jobs in the market. vince reinhart will be joining us. and what is a jobs friday without a little shot of rock and roll? kansas is celebrating 40 years in the music business. it has been a very changed scene over those 40 years. we have the founding member, drummer and band manager phil e. hart. andrew, obviously, we have it
all today. we do, we do. it's great to see you, becky. joe mentioned stocks are off to a very strong start this year. if you believe in the january barometer, it's a great sign for the bulls. the theory satsdz that the s&p direction in january sets the tone for the next 11 months. the s&p ridesing more than 5% for this january. the transports, by the way, even stronger with a more than 9% gain. the nasdaq also positive, up 4%. here are a few stats of note that are worth thinking about. it was the best month for the dow industrial transports and s&p 500 since october 2011. the best january for the dow industrials since 1994. it's the strongest start to the year for transports since 1991 and the largest january returns for the s&p 500 since 1997. professor jeremy siegel
reiterating his call yesterday morning. we're going to see earnings per share 5% to 8% higher. we're going to see expandables which will send us well above 15,000. >> we have green arrows, so maybe this bullish trend will continue. dow looks like it will open up about 53 points higher. nas dk will be up about 8 points and the s&p 500 up a little over 4 points. back to you, mr. kernen. >> andrew, it's a good week to have this unemployment report. it's right after the gdp report, which we don't know what to think. anyway, forecasts are looking for 166,000 jobs. the unemployment rate is seen to hold steady at 7.8%. and average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2%. we'll be looking at revisions, too, given that we now have a revised view of the last three
months. the jobs report is always a closely watched one. we also had two or three really good thursday numbers, claims numbers, and then that reversed yesterday and made that look more seasonal. so it will be particularly important today following data which, as i said, showed a contraction, a surprise contraction, 0.1% in gdp in the fourth quarter. point of no return, i thought that was six. >> nope. >> kansas. what you probably don't know is it's point of know. >> k-n-o-w? >> yes. i just found that out. i thought, why are we playing stixx if it's kansas? >> i don't understand what it means, but it is -- so we've got phil e. hart -- i think it's phil edward hart on. >> e. hart.
>> what's the "e" for? >> you're up on this. you're ready to go. it's part of his name. >> no, kwquail is the biggest - >> first cassette he ever bought, first disk, yeah. >> how much money do they make on one album? >> i was going to say $3 to 5 bucks the. >> and they're on tour. >> which makes boocoo bucks, too. >> i've seen him a few times on tour, too. >> they're kind of wrinkly now, aren't they? >> i'm kind of used to that. >> british? >> no. they're from topeka. >> oh, korea, kansas. i knew that. >> exactly. >> we've got kansas on this morning and we'll talk to them about the changing news of business in the last 40 years. but in our corporate headlines
this morning, airbus has studied alternatives to leth yim ion batteries for its next jet, but so far, it is stand big the modern power pack. the airline says it has had time to deal with the issues raised by boeing's dreamliner. there's a strike authorization question on a ballot. the ballot will go to members next week and obviously an engineer strike could cripple production of the airline. metlife is buying the largest chile pension business for about $2 billion. the senate has passed legislation to allow the government to keep borrowing money at least through may 19th. the measure postpones spending and tax cuts for at tleeft two months. the obama administration's
decision on the keystone oil pipeline won't be made until at least june. that's according to a u.s. officials. the projects has been pending for more than 4 1/2 years. of course, we've had lots of debate about the pipeline even here around this table. >> let's check on the markets this morning. the futures are probably going to be what steady as we go. we'll see what happens at 8:30. but not bad so far. that would be getting back almost exactly what we lost yesterday. we lost about 49 points. and there's a lot of -- it was a great january, but then got that gdp number. we're warning, does it necessarily mean that the market has been wrong about the economy? or was it the one off and was it, you know, some special factors that caused that shrinkage and does it get revised back up and subsequent reports? i've heard a lot of places. this is the best negative gdp report. >> well, if you're going to have
to pick a negative one, this would be it. >> but there was a lot of good stuff. >> it doesn't startle the market at all when it came out. >> i don't know whether they're whistling past the grape yard -- the mark was over a contraction, but not negative. >> they were looking for growth of 1%. >> so it was expected to be -- to go down. no one thought it would be negative. but if you're looking for 1% and you minus a tenth -- >> it's off by one. >> you think it's going to hit the unemployment rate? there's a big debate. >> i have no idea. >> i it probably won't this time around -- >> plus one or zero is not a big difference. the reality is you need 3% gdp growth. >> that's assuming that he needs an introduction. >> you're right, he doesn't. this is miles nordell miles from nowhere. >> ndc.
>> i thought that was a home builder. >> there is an ndc home builder. >> did you think about that when you -- >> when you're from toronto, you don't think about these things, actually. >> okay. am i doing these or are you doing these? >> you are. >> let's check them out. let's check out the oil markets. suddenly, you know, here we are, $97 a barrel and thought greated with a big jan. not really sure why. and gasoline prices are down in the low 3s. the ten-year everybody has been watching. we thought it would be over 2% by now and it is. it is over 2%. half the people think it's going down and others think it's on its way to 2.785%. one thing that i don't believe anybody anticipated is the -- >> oh, the yen is down sharply against all currencies. >> morning. >> 92. and gold the last i looked was under 1700, but creeping back up, 1666.
okay. . and global news, average home prices in china's 100 biggest cities was 1% in january from december. and it marks the eighth consecutive marketing rise. two other surveys show growth was weak and the economists caution the country could set a tradeback if trade or government weaken. >> we're here for a lot of reasons, but one thing we need to talk about for an advertising, guys, is there anything better to tuz on than the super bowl? >> no. and it's gotten more important. ite become the academy awards of advertising. first of all, viewership is up. about 111 million people will watch it. crisis is up more than 7%. >> more people watch the laugh
time or the gain 12347. >> yes. >> i always thought that was when everybody went to the bathroom. >>. >> you go to the kitchen, you get a drink, you do all sorts of things during halftime. >> $3.75 million for a 30-second spot. people have paid over $4 million. price of ads is up 60% over the last decade. they're also sold out almost a half a billion dollars of ads spend for this super bowl. there will be about 78 advertisers. and i think the most important thing is this new trend towards teaseres and contests and online activity before, during and after. so it's not just the actual advertising during the game. about 42% of all tweets are
actually about the ads. is on ads have become an interactive activity that have become hugely popular. and it's probably the most iconic way to reach a mass audience than ever before. >> for branding, i can see it. but after watching an ad, can you actually quantify a jump in sales for the products? are you sure it happened and -- >> well, i think the critical thing is, is the different before, during and after. all these teasers. and creating an inducement for people to go into retail stores or dealerships. >> doritos sales go up when they have a funny ad? >> absolutely. absolutely. we did a commercial for hulu. they happen very young at the time. sales were up 66% over the next four months after one spot. >> it makes a big difference for a brand you don't know.
is it harder to measure for the big brands like a doritos? >> anheuser-busch is a big advertiser consistently. you're not going to move it transformationally. but it is a positive impact. i think what chrysler did two years ago with m&m had a very profound impact. >> that was a good ad. >> is there scuttlebutt around who has an ad that people will be talking about on monday? >> well, i think there's a lot of celebrity now. you have kate upton involved in mercedes. amy polar is involved with best buy. so that probably gets the most profile. whether it has the most impact remains to be seen. >> there's a column in adage that suggests ratings for this year's super bowl may be the first that could drop based on ratings that have come down for the ten games in a postseason this year. do you believe that? >> i don't have any reason to not believe it. but i think part of it is probably who are the
participants. so the giants and the new england patriots, you'd probably have higher ratings. >> if you're new england, san francisco, but then i'm short -- >> but i will tell you that there is more demand that there is supply for advertising. >> i was thinking, how much do we spend advertising "squawk box"? it's a negative number, isn't it? >> you think we can come up with 7 $7550,000? do you think a 30-second spot would double our rating? >> no. but you have so much celebrity profile, but the social media aspect -- >> just different sports or whatever. it would focus on becky. it would not focus on you and
me. >> that's clear. >> i think the key thing we should focus on is to try and get you a million subscribers on twitter. >> that means i'd have to tweet. >> well, we can get people to tweet for you. >> think about rupert murdoch says the come woman didn't go through the hole because she was fat and then we have a deal for the next two weeks? i know i say things that shouldn't be in writing. >> but you put them on the air. >> but then near gone, mostly. >> but i'm telling you, if we could get you a million subscribers, i think it would have a profound impact on -- >> i've been on twitter for like, what, seven or eight months and i'm at about 200 tweets and most of them are retweets. >> how many followers do you have? >> not that much. sorkin has like -- >> he has a like a million. >> half a million. >> do you know the incredible stories of someone nos not advertising and having a great following? ian. >> absolutely. >> he's amazing.
and a lot of it is -- >> nice, who we saw drinking at the bar. >> it's sociology media. >> and those crazy clothes and spiked hair. and he puts pretty well, too. that might have built his brand a little bit. >> what are the ads that people fall in love with? >> miles will be with us for the next hour. we also want to let you know about a news alert that is coming up. ed koch, the former new york city mayor has passed away. he was a three-term mayor in new york city, served from 1978 through 1989 and his policies were credited with saving new york city from almost certain financial ruin. there were some combative times that he went through, as well. he was a beloved mayor that did a lot when it kams to the financial names. he had been reported earlier that he was in intensive care this morning and they are just coming out with this news. >> he's a giant in new york.
>> i grew up in new york city when he was out mayor. >> really? >> yeah. wonderful man. wonderful man. we've got much more "squawk box" to come as the countdown to the jobs report plus the earnings we're going to get from mattel and why mcdonald's dollar mcdouble might be harder to stomach. plus we've got the super bowl this weekend. and brian shactman, are you ready for some football? >> i'm ready for some football, a little bit of food, maybe some wagering and some new orleans fun, guys. we'll follow all of those things next on "squawk box." [ male announcer ] you are a business pro.
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welcome back, everybody. u.s. equity futures are indicated higher this morning,.. we are looking at gains of close to 50 points for the s&p futures. up by 3.5. you have that jobs report coming up and that could set the market for this first day of trait trading in february. mattel earning $1.12 a share. mcdonald's popular $1 mcdouble cheeseburger is getting hard to sustain, at least keeping it at those prices. rising beef prices have been threatening the company's price margins. the mcdouble is above $1 in places like los angeles. we'll keep an eyen what's happening with some of these commodity prices. right now, i'll send it over to you. >> a buck.
>> i can't believe they can do it for a dollar. >> i don't think they're making enough money on that. in the meantime, let's get the national forecast from alex wallace. i need to know what's going to happen this week jebd and in new orleans. >> new orleans is going to be looking pretty good. we have dry skies, temperatures will be pretty comfortable tkly for game time and for tailgates outside. so looking good in the big easy. not looking great in the mid-atlantic. the good news is, it is going to be moving pretty quickly. maybe an inch to two opinion sxabd the view and is right around the great lakes, all the great lakes are active at this point with lake-effect snow coming off of ontario, erie, michigan, you name it. we've got snow showers out there in place for us. that will be the case as we progress on through the weekend.
one of the reasons why, the cold air over those lakes. these twt actual temperatures. 6 in marquette. but then we get to minneapolis, bismarck, these areas below zero at this time. factor in just a little bit of wind and it feels even colder. brutal chills in the air, near 30 below zero is what it feels like in minneapolis. guys, back to you. >> all right, alex, we're talking about you. you are a great guy, alex. we're talking about bobby here coming on later. but you're a good guy, too. >> and we're glad to have you two days in a row now. >> yeah, two in a row! >> right now, we're a few days away from super bowl xlvii. i'm glad they wrote it out in normal numbers for me. it's like this long. it goes all the way around. baltimore ravens taking on the san francisco 49ers. we sent shaq -- not that shaq, the more famous shaq, brian shactman, so new orleans to give
us the snapshot of the hoopla in morals. brian, there may be a tailgater already. have you checked? >> when we walked down there, but when you get up at 4:00 in the morning, most people are coming in from their night to the intersection of me getting up and putting makeup on is kind of amazing. the week has been bizarre, right? we have ray lewis and antler spray. then you have a san francisco 49er getting in hot water over anti-gay comments. beyond the har-bowl, average minutes want to know about the food, they want to know about new orleans and the prop betts. i thought i'd give a snapshot of my favorites, guys, as we go into this game. harbaugh mentioned on tv the over/under. 21 1/2. i'm taking the over on that one.
caller for the gatorade for the winners, yellow is at 35 5/to 2 right now. although i think the favorite is clooer or water. i'm not sure which you know i would take for that one. tweet per second, it's 15,000. i would take the over on that one. and then there's the longest touchdown prop, it's 46.5 yards. not that anyone cares, but i would take turned on that. of course, the volume of food. you happen, commercials and food are where it's at for people at home. 79 million avocados, 11 million pounds of chips. 1.23 million rgz po portions o chicken wings. there will be fewer chicken wings consumed for this super bowl and then, of course, the 51 million cases of beer. the other thing i want to point out to you guys, new orleans, this is the first super bowl they've had here. post katrina, post bp spill.
the europe dome mind me, the city invisited more than $1 million from hotels and casinos, museums. i've been down here covering the spill and i covered hurricane isaac. in terms of the police and the presence here, they're nervous about all the crowds coupleble with mardi gras. but the city looks great. >> brian, when you were -- the thing about when you were in high school and you were playing hockey and given hard checks and hitding people, did you ever say to a national audience, it's hard for me to get up, get a shower, put a little makeup on and leave the house. did you ever think you would say things like that to a national audience? >> there's things like that where i wonder where i come from -- >> you didn't even pause. i get up, take a shower and try to put on makeup and --
>> but down here, guys putting on on makeup, it's not -- >> you're concerned. you need a little glitter. >> well, my wife will text me after this and say i need a little more bronzer, that i'm a little pale. >> we'll check back and that rovell guy did you a favor. you know who he discovered? >> who? >> oh, yes. >> kate upton. >> they're buddies. they went to like a presidential dinner together. >> the white house correspondence dinner. >> she was 16. and i was like, oh, my god. even kate upton gets -- because its was this big. anyway, thank you, brian shactman. >> we'll see you next hour. >> go ahead. >> when we come back, it was the best january for the dow since 1994. we're going to check in with the trader and ask if the bulls can
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>> toe peek wa was north of where we are. our top story, the january employment report polled forecasters. the economy likely added 166,000 jobs last month. the unemployment rate is seen at holding steady at 7.8%. but we never know. we never know what happened with the participation rate. >> and who dropped out of the workforce. >> i don't see a lot of people retiring. i'm not. miles isn't. i'm not retiring ever. >> that's a new trend. people -- there's something like 18% of the nation still works past 65. it used to be down to 8%. >> so why is the participation rate going down when -- >> because you can't find a job. if you can't find a job, you go into retirement to get social security. >> the way enablers use that to bring et down. we supposedly had a three-year recovery after this great recession. the karpgz rate is supposed to rise in a recovery. >> maybe that means we haven't
seen the recovery yet. it's weird that none of us really hear about a recession coming and say, no, it won't. there was a time, andrew, where -- >> it will be like six year or seven years and say there's a recession coming. the stock market was predicted nine out of the last ten recessions. business owners will say, we've learned how to manage this. look at the flipside now. now it's like there may never be another recovery. we don't really see a recovery ever. >> that's a great way of looking at it. >> it is. we were wrong when we were thing those things before that there would be another downturn. >> i think we have a different expectation today about what is a recovery. i think we have gotten used to this 2%. >> we used to do 3% and 4%.
>> we're not going to do 3 or 4 for a while. why? >> because i don't think there's that much to -- >> what about china in the 80s. >> well, i think there's a lot -- >> it doesn't matter. >> how can it not matter? we should be selling blue jeans and coca-cola. >> but back then they weren't -- >> they're manufacturing stuff that we can buy for pennies on the dollar. >> one of the most important things to think about is wage inflation. there isn't wage inflation. wages are very flat. normally when you add 3% or 4/% gdp growth, you had wage ip tlagz. you're not seeing that today. and you also have a jobless recovery because technology is replacing a lot of the jobs that existed. >> back in the late 70s, oil suddenly went from, you know, $10 a barrel to $50 a barrel. how are you ever going to come back when that happened? >> every little thing, 80% of
the business of the fortune 100 companies is outside of america. so they are hiring. they're hiring in china, they're hiring in india, they're hiring in brazil. >> and we were told that yesterday. >> no, no, no. because that's where the business is going. >> the gdp, we're not stuck. there is a new normal. >> mohammed said the new normal is only three or four years. >> exactly. but when the world becomes a marketplace for us to sell our goods into -- >> i'll tell you, you're getting big employment growth in the tech sector. there are millions of jobs unfulfilled in the tech sector, especially in the engineering category. people are having great difficulty. if you talk to most tech ceos, they're having great difficulty filling employment in those jobs. >> right. >> all right. joining us from the futures pit, allen nuckman, market strategist at options shop.
are we going back on the rally trend today or does it matter on the report, allen? >> i've got a little bit of a feeling that it should be interesting that the market you might see some heavy profit taking after maybe a blow up. i have a feeling that's the way things are set up. but the charts are telling me that things are going to remain strong. i still have a 1600 target on the s&p. i didn't think it would happen this quickly and this straight up without any corrections. but i think the catalyst that i'm looking for is additional dollar weakness. that, as you were referring to, that's going to help u.s. corporations with their exports. we've had a very strong dollar regardless of what people think about the fed support. the dollar is still 10% above those extreme low necessary 2008. >> yeah. do you think we're ever going to go back to 4%, allan? you're a trader. >> i'm very optimistic. where we make our money is in what the performance of the markets do. you know, predicting the
economic event, is that doesn't pay the bill. it's our job to take advantage of whatever the opportunities up, down or sideways. i would like to think that things are continuing to get better. there's not been a very high correlation between the stock market action and the economic numbers. we can talk economic numbers all we want. >> the commodity markets still haven't participated. they're still 50% below their stock market highs. i think that additional push, the dollar safety unwinding as we've started to see in the bonds, you know, that money coming out has to go to work. i think that's going to be very supportive for equities and i think it's going to be supportive for commodities, as well. >> have you ever thought of just getting rid of that? i see it. it makes me ask if it's knuckman or -- does it do anything? do you like to hold that place
in the alphabet? what is the reason for leaving it there? >> my daughter came home and told me it's a silent k. now she knows, we're going on run with it. >> you're going to leave it there? >> exactly. >> up to you. all right. alan, thank you. i'd use it if it was there. i would go with the use it or lose it. thanks, alan. >> we're going to come back to miles nadal. anyway, it's good to see you. tell us about the super bowl ads that you actually have run this weekend? >> i don't even know because they don't even tell me and they don't tell us sflp. >> you're so high -- >> no, no. it's discreet. some of them don't announce publicly what they're going to do until the day of kind of thing. we have usually about a dozen spots. so we have about just under 20% of the ads. >> how much money is in it for you?
>> oh, goodness. well, we're usually on retainer. so it's part of our overall program and we don't mark up production. but it's -- what's most important, the profile that it gives you to do iconic ads that produce results and that leads to new business activity, which has been for us record. >> do you do media buying, as well? >> we do. we do about $3.5 million worth of media buying. >> do you get a percentage for what the buy is? >> yes. >> where we do buy super bowl spots, that part is very valuable. the most valuable part is the opportunity to maefbate people in our organization who are dying to do the great creative iconic super bowl spots. >> so it creates a competitive environment? >> the most and it's great for their reputation, their reel and it's wonderful when you can go and do business pictures and you have this repertoire of great iconic ads that you've done.
>> you own many agencies now. which one do you like most? it's saying which child do you like better, but -- >> 72 and sunny was one of our two new agencies that we acquired a partnership interest. they're awarded agency of the year. they're the ones who did the samsung spots that were really iconic in terms of their impact. >> yeah. >> and it was phenomenal. so we're lucky. we have six extraordinary agencies out of the 60 that are -- >> chrispin, of course, was for many years the hottest. >> and a new firm called the anomaly. >> do these things go in cycles? >> probably. probably. but i think -- >> is that part of your model, though? >> it's the back entrepreneurial firms who understand how consumers consume input in an evolving and emerging technolei technologyal environment. but the one thing i will tell you is crowd sourcing is having
a big impact. and the other thing is this inactivity. people want to participate in ads and they want to participate in feedback in ads and they want to participate in contests and other kinds of activities where they get a chance. so the inner activity is very beneficial to build loyalty with the brands. >> miles, don't go anywhere. we have another cool guest coming up in about a moment. >> in fact, up next to the rock and roll economy, tons of hits, millions and millions of albums sold. kansas is celebrating years in the business. we have phil ehart and eeg ready to rock out with us. more on this in just a moment. fe who gets heartburn and then treats day after day... block the acid with prilosec otc and don't get heartburn in the first place! [ male announcer ] one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero heartburn.
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♪ >> welcome back, everybody. we are in the chairs. this is the segment where we cover the business side of everything from sports to gossip to rock and roll. today, it is all about rock and roll. known for classic rock mainstays like "dust in the wind" and "carry on way ward son" kansas is celebrating its 40th year anniversary. kansas has sold more than 35 million albums throughout the band's career, including eight gold and three platinum albums. we are fortunate enough to be joined by the founding member, the drummer and manager phil ehart. >> it is great to have you in studio with us.
>> thanks. it's my pleasure. >> you have a show tonight, which is even more shocking that you have up with it. >> what are you doing? >> i have no idea. i have a sound check, i think, in like 11 hours. >> you need a nap between now and then. >> i look forward to it. >> you have to start drinking. >> 11 hours from now. i think i can get a nap in. >> you know, who years. that is phenomenal to be a band that is still so popular, still touring, what, 80 days a year? >> yeah. we do about 70 to 80 shows a year. >> how have you kept up with the times? what's the difference from 40 years ago? >> well, we move a little slower mow than we used to, but it's a little bit more organized and we're more in control of our own destiny and is our own business. which is a big change for us because it used to be much different than that. but now, we -- >> in terms of the record companies sort of running your life sthp. >> well, yeah. you are at the beck and is call
of the record companies and having to do videos and having to do singles and having to do all these. now we don't worry about that any wore. >> you just play live. >> well, we play live. that's our mainstay. >> would you say anyone has lost a step or are you better? i remember garcia at the end, it was like -- it was singing at at p >> i think we're probably just more experienced. we may be better. >> but you sound the same, right? >> very much so. yes. if we didn't, we would probably hang it pup. >> and i can't imagine you need the money at this point, so it's the feeling on stiej, i guess, that's -- >> well, you know, it's what we do. you know? people say, how much longer are you going to do this? we go, it's what we do. what else would we do if we didn't do this? we're happy to be here and very appreciative of our fans. >> so being on stage, you still have to go on the road, you're still driving around, probably in hotels and stuff. >> oh, yeah, yeah. >> so it might be a pretty good feeling when you're on stage to
get you -- >> well, that's what it's all about. that hour and a half each night is what you spend the rest of the day, you know, working towards. >> you have an incredibly loyal fan base. meatheads. our executive producer is one of them. >> i noticed that, yes. >> how do you know that? do you know him pretty well? >> yeah, i've spent some time with him. so how do you keep -- is it the same people that come out again and again and again? >> not so much. it's our fan based matures and gets older, we're getting now a much younger fan base, thanks to youtube and, of course, the video games like garage band and guitar hero. >> that's a great point. >> our songs have been on. >> do you go to them, do they come to you? do you have people who are trying to get the songs on these new mediums? >> yeah, the companies come to us that make those videos the.of course, we've been on "south park," too. if you've been on "south park" as far as we're concerned,
you've hit the pinnacle. >> how many albums? >> i have no idea. probably 15, 19, 20. >> are there times you don't feel like playing "dust in the wind" you feel like playing songs you're proud of that didn't become as well known? >> the songs that are in our set are the songs we want to play. >> do you still play carry on -- you've got to, right? >> there are a staple five or six songs that we play each night. >> and then there are songs they probably haven't even heard. >> we play songs from all of our albums and we know there are severe kansas fans out there, but there are new ones, too. we pay just as much attention to the old ones as the new ones. >> are you a fan of apple and spotify and things that some say have been bad for the music business? >> it's been great for us. we sold all our albums before that came along, anyway. am has given us another revenue stream to put our music on and
that wasn't there ten to 15 years ago. so it's something that works very well for us. >> you're also the band's manager. when ideas like the video games came up, when apple and all these things approached you, did it seem like a no-brainer at the time inspect did you have to sit down and think things through? >> it did. it did not seem like a no-brainer because we weren't part of that before and we weren't sure how it worked and what the quality would be. early on, it was a bit of a throw in the dice to see what the quality would be and if we wanted to be associated with it and we're glad we did. it worked out really well. >> that's amazing. some of the other things that you've done, though, have been playing with symphonies and playing with a lot of back up behind you. how did you get into those? is that part of the artistic -- >> again, it's part of the business. with any business, you have to look for new places to go. you can't do the same stuff over and symphonies opened up a whole new world for us as well as playing the university
symphonies. they've played a lot of colleges all over the country playing. so that gives you a whole new fan base there that really wasn't there until we went there. so it's -- the whole symphonic side has been exciting. >> fleetwood mac has done that, too. >> yeah. a number of bands have been doing it. >> it's a smart way of keeping things in. >> we hope so. >> what's the next big step? do you have any new things on the 40th year is a big step for us. you know. who would have thought, because four of us went to high school together, and started out as just guys in high school playing clubs, and here we are 40 years later. so we're just happy to be here. there will be a documentary that's being made of the band, of the six original members that we're working on at this time. so that will be out this year and just hope we make it to the 41st year. >> phil, we're going to go to break, so if you don't want to share this now, you have any
really good groupie stories like that you can share when we -- because you're married now, but like before you -- can you do this over here? >> wow, look at the time. wow. >> the groupies now are a little -- because on "squawk box" we have -- >> i have female fans that go crazy but they have blue hair, the ones that -- is that what shows up at this point? yeah? >> no, it's -- >> phil, we want to thank you very much for coming in. >> it's my pleasure. thank you very much. >> we really appreciate your time. and again, good luck tonight at the concert. >> thank you very much. >> phil ehart. >> what are you charging 30 bucks for this t-shirt? >> at least. >> more money -- >> all right. >> coming up next, a final encore of the hour. and coming up the ceo of dow component travelers jay fishman is going to join us to talk about the debt, the economy and the insurance game. as we head to a break, check out the price of gasoline. prices surging across the nation. a lot more coming up on
i think there's going to be a bar bell. firms that are able to drive transformational growth for clients, clients will fit more than they anticipated. if they can't do that, they won't. i think the big growth is going to still be the movement, the social media experienced -- >> all the money moving online? >> not all moving. you just have much more accelerated growth. but look, you know, tv is still growing. you know, the up trends were strong. best super bowl ever. >> "squawk" is still growing. >> "squawk" is still growing. so the pie is shifting. but look, in a low growth gdp striern, marketers need to spend money on marketing. they just want to make sure it's working and driving return on investment. >> okay, miles, thank you for that. >> pleasure to be here. >> got to weigh in after the super bowl, too. >> okay, that would be great. >> thank you, miles. when we come back more of our big lineup today. this is a lot of corporate leaders on tap with us next. kelly king of bb&t the ceo
there. also jay fishman the ceo of travelers. roche ceo self earn schwann, matt shattuck the ceo of beam. "squawk" will be right back. youe who gets heartburn and then treats day after day... block the acid with prilosec otc and don't get heartburn in the first place! [ male announcer ] one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero heartburn. and don't get heartburn in the first place! all stations come over to mithis is for real this time. step seven point two one two. verify and lock. command is locked. five seconds. three, two, one. standing by for capture. the most innovative software on the planet... dragon is captured. is connecting today's leading companies to places beyond it. siemens. answers.
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jobs, jobs and jobs. will today's report put a damper on the january effect? it's been a game of wait and see. we'll give you what you need to capitalize on the today's numbers and tell you what it means for the month ahead. >> plus the earnings cavalcade continues. merck, exxon and chevron all expected to report in the next two hours. we'll have market reaction and what it means for the economy. that is just ahead.
andist quiz time. >> i choose business ethics. >> how much do the nfl elite know about finance and the economy? we're going to find out in our annual financial quiz bowl live from new orleans as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> what you just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things i've ever heard. i award you no points and my god have mercy on your sole. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on krcht nbc, i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. futures pointing to a strong open on wall street. that, of course, ahead of the jobs report due out in 90 minutes. so anything could change. but it has been a january to remember the dow was up nearly 6%. the transports even stronger with a more than 9% gain. the nasdaq also positive, up 4%. check out these statistics. the best month for the dow
industrial transports and s&p 500 since october 2011. also the best january for the dow industrials. strongest start of the year for the transports since 1991. and the largest january returns for the s&p 500 since 1997. so it has started off strong. we'll see whether that continues. back to joe and becky. i think you guys have some earnings news. >> from merck, andrew, 83 cents which is two cents above expectation. 11.7 billion in sales, versus an estimate of 11.48 billion for 2013 the company is forecasting 360 to 370 a share. and that is versus an expectation of 368. all these things are right in line. the stock has a wide bid and ask right now. maybe down a quarter. i almost thought, you know, it's february 1st.
this is the fourth quarter number. if everybody else can get it in by january, i'm not sure, but merck, it's february 1st. they can't get their fourth quarter numbers in before fib. >> it's pretty complicated. >> i almost thought about not even -- i don't really think we were required to even mention these. they're so late. >> they do have a lot of difficulties. ken fraichier the chairman of the ceo was talking about how they overcame significant challenges to come up with this. they're also talking about how they're continuing to develop some things in-house. the rapidly advancing they say many compounds they think potentially are first in class or best in class. plus listen to this. when you start thinking about acquisitions. they say we will continue to pursue external opportunities to have the potential to deliver value to the company and it's shareholders. andrew you've been talking about how deals are picking up. certainly sounds like they are on the hunt. >> people have been expecting a huge consolization in the pharmaceutical industry for a very long time. >> it's nonstop, really. every company is -- >> one way or the other. >> every company you talk about
is like the combination -- usually the name is a combination of -- >> of everybody else. there should be -- you think it should be more. >> maybe there won't be. look at this deal the other day -- >> when they say they're going to look at things a lot of times, could be biotech. we're going to have roche on and their headquarters in the united states are in south san francisco because they're headquarters -- impact the office space acquired -- >> looking at merck. a lot of people have been buying merck because of the 4% yield, as well. trading at about $43 a share. everything more or less in line with what does the market really want. >> we need to let you know about a developing story this morning. there are some reports of an explosion in front of the u.s. embassy in ankara, turkey. at least one person is said to be dead. in fact the associated press is now reporting that two people were killed. police are saying that a suicide bomber detonated a bomb at the u.s. embassy in the turkish
capital. this is according to the associated press and some turkish media that has been reporting on this. it only happened in the last half hour or so. we will continue to monitor the situation and bring you up to date as more details come in. some other headlines for you this morning. we are less than 90 minutes away from the widely anticipated january jobs report. economists are looking for 166,000 new nonfarm jobs. the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 7.8%. we'll also be getting some other key economic numbers this morning. the nation's automakers are going to be releasing their january sales figures, and we'll get the university of michigan's consumer sentiment index and the ism manufacturing index. a lot of economic news coming your way. >> we also have some sad news to share this morning. former new york city mayor ed koch, rescued the city from near financial ruin during three terms died at the age of 88 years old. koch won a national reputation with his feisty style and trade mark question, how am i doing? he served as new york city mayor from 1978 to 1989.
and his tight fiscal policies pulled the city out of financial difficulties. he was a giant. i remember interviewing him a couple years ago, and he was a great interviewer. always a colorful character. lived a great life. >> he did. >> he did. the focus, of course, is on the markets, and jobs this morning. a strong january in the markets, that could set the stage for some big games in 2013. and we spoke to professor jeremy siegel yesterday about what he thinks is possible for the rest of the year. >> at the beginning of last year i kind of stuck out my neck and said that 70% chance by the end of 2013 we're getting dow 15,000. and it didn't look very likely toward the end of last year. but i stuck to that forecast. and i still do now. i really think so. and i think 16,000 to 17,000 is a very strong possibility. this could be a really another double-digit year. >> we have a power panel set up this morning. vince reinhart is managing director and chief u.s. economist at morgan stanley.
and kelly king is chairman and ceo of bb&t. he will be our guest host for the next two hours to talk about a lot of stuff affecting the financials -- vince, as an economist, that follows things closely, was that a good negative number for gdp if there is such a thing? >> in terms of the composition, yes. ed line negative showed a big private demand. and that's what's really pulling us up. essentially the private sector is picking up. we're showing the resilient of the market economy. it's just the politicians are in the way. >> we had a discussion, don't mean to get to it right away. are we growing below our potential right now? do we have a new potential because of globalization that is below -- i mean it's a new normal we're in where we should be happy with 2%? >> the new normal, because we're after a severe financial crisis, everybody expecting a v-shaped recovery is still waiting for
it. plain fact is after a severe financial crisis you have several years in which you grow more slowly. however for the u.s. the financial crisis is receding in the rear view mirror and we should be picking up. we think we were stuck in a growth channel centered around 2%, beginning this year probably next year, that growth channel is going to be more like 2.5%. >> what about i know long-term it's difficult enough to do it for this year. do you think 3.5 is on the horizon? >> that's going to be a real stretch. important because of demographics. the best thing we got going for us is that we are very good at extracting a form of energy in the middle part of the country that we don't like to -- that gives manufacturers a comparative -- >> i can't imagine that that's not going to be the thing -- all these other things. there's always something that offsets some of the negatives and i can't believe that's not going to be a powerful thing for us in the future. >> i think so, too. that's how we get to 2.5 demographics are going to be a drag.
>> i'm being interested in your perspective. we're not talking about our clients about small businesses. a lot of bentup demand. we've been kind of sitting on our hands for four-plus years now, because of all the uncertainty, you know, in the environment there's still a lot of uncertainty. if we had positive leadership out of washington, and some of the uncertainty went away. don't you think there could be a mini boom here trying to replenish some of the inventories, equipment and technologies that have not been invested in? >> absolutely. that's the upside riz k to the forecast. >> we don't call 2.5 a surge, vince. >> no. upside risk to the forecast. i think if you want me to think about how you get over 2.5, it's all those ceos sitting with 1.5 trillion of cash on their balance sheet beginning to worry about the competition. and all start investing at once. mainly we don't think politicians will get out of the way all that quickly. >> what does that mean, get out
of the way? >> get out of the way meaning give you some certainty. we've operated without a budget for four years. there's a threat beyond sequestration, it's easy to imagine a government shutdown. it's easy to imagine even more spending restraint. we don't have a longer-term sense of our fiscal position. we are on an unsustainable budget path. we don't need necessarily more consolidation right now. we need a plan. >> all right. so you would do -- what about, would you lower corporate taxes, would you do something with the territorial tax situation we have? i guess that would be a passive, right? and probably at least acknowledging, if the democrats would acknowledge that entitlements are a problem, maybe that would help, right, even if you don't do it immediately? >> so here's the good news. good news is we're so far inside best practices for delivering fiscal policy there's lots of things that we can do to get us to a better position. republicans have to recognize you have to raise the average tax rate. democrats have to recognize the
best way to do it isn't raising marginal rates and underwriting an inefficient system. >> as someone who spent last week at davos and he said that he talked to a large number of european ceos who are eager about investing in the united states because of our projected suspensionly lower energy policy because of shell of course we're going to get out of our way and saying let them do it. but that's encouraging that they can think about moving plants here now. >> absolutely. i was at davos, too, and the most encouraging thing was that ceos really did see a path for brighter economic activity. discouraging thing was there was a sense of complacency among european politicians. that's another class of politicians that have to show some leadership. >> but they have a different kind of problem over there because they don't have really anything new. we have this new found energy that's really a problem for us. >> but getting back to that. i look at alternative growth
rates over the past 20 years between the united states and europe and i look at that with pride because it's truly 50% higher. which has enriched our citizens 50% more. and it depresses me to think that did they just -- they're early on this, this demographic that you're talking about, the constraints growth, the 2%, is that really what we're looking at now? we're never going to beat europe by 50% in terms of growth from here on out because we can't? >> never say never. a market economy is very resilient. and demographics were -- >> we've got to let it be a market economy, though, vince, is that one of the problems? >> that's why i keep saying if politicians get out of the way. also we have some control of demographics. we're getting older no doubt. but if we do immigration reform right, we can significantly offset the effect of the aging population. >> if you were in charge, vince, would you -- i'm ready to, i don't know whether i can get an amendment through, how many are there, a lot? but a couple of them we don't
need i think. but if we have maybe i'll replace one but if we could put in that everything the government does someone should have to look at it through the presidentism of how it affects growth and employment before we do it? i don't think we're ever considering how it affects growth. we're doing all this stu i'm not really i don't really understand the rationale i guess we want to be fair or we want to be pc or we want to be alternative or renewal or whatever but everything we're doing now has nothing to do with growth and that doesn't help. >> we have to just vote on that right now. >> we voted unfortunately. in november. am i on to something for not, vince? it should be about growth. >> we've got a group of people in washington who have the skill set to do it at the congressional budget office. they do a lot of that. you've got to give them credit. i think you're exactly right. legislation really has to be scored for what does it mean to our wealth, that is the net present value of our ability to create goods and services. >> yeah. okay, vince, we appreciate it.
kelly will be with us in the interview guest. give us your own opinion, kelly, for the next two hours. >> when we come back, travelers has been on a buyback binge. we have the ceo jay fishman. he's going to talk to us about the company's growth plan, america's debt crisis, and the aftereffects of superstorm sandy. good morning, jay. [ man ] i've been out there most of my life.
welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. checking futures right now. dow looks like it would hope up about 50 points higher. s&p 500 open up about four points higher, nasdaq up 10 points higher. merck in the news this morning, it earned 83 cents per share, two cents above estimates. watch that stock today. revenue was also above consensus. the company saying new products that it characterizes as first in class are rapidly advancing through its pipeline. in about 15 minutes we're going to be hearing from another drug giant the ceo of roche is going to join us on set to talk cancer cures and much, much more. >> all right.
dow component travelers partnering with media affiliates to highlight america's debt crisis in a new one-hour documentary entitled overdraft. joining us on set is jay fishman, chairman and ceo of the travelers companies, also dubbed wall street's honest man by "forbes" magazine. jay, it's great to have you on set. >> great to be here. >> we have a lot of things to talk about. why don't we start off talking a little bit about what's happening right now with america's debt situation. >> sure. we got involved three years ago, four years ago. we started becoming concerned with the longer-term outlook was really very problematic. so we started doing a data analysis of the budget. really did a very deep dive into it. and i think we understand it better than most. the challenges are significant. we felt that it was important to help educate the american public so that our leaders would have a greater support to do what they have to do. and the numbers really are over the intermediate term are really impressive. >> we've watched fix the debt and a lot of these organizations that are backed by businesses
who have run the numbers and are growing concerned about it. i've been surprised that it hasn't picked up more steam with the american public pushing pressure back on their politicians to deal with these things. it's a complicated problem and while everyone can probably look at the logic of it, they also don't want to lose the benefits that they're getting right now. >> you've got it absolutely right. but here's the numbers that are really so compelling. this past fiscal year, social security, medicaid, and medicare was a trillion and a half dollars. by 2020 simply because of demographic shift in the country that's going to be 2.5 trillion. a trillion dollars more every year in seven years. that 2.5 trillion is equal to every nickel that we brought in last year. total tax revenues last year were 2.5 trillion. and so if you talk about trillion dollar deficits, it's not terribly difficult to look forward and doing something to really be talking about 2 trillion. >> 2030 or 2025 and it just keepts getting worst. >> it gets worse. there are 10,000 people a day turning 65 for the next 19
years. and this is the baby boom. >> this is what you do, too. as an insurance company it's all about actual aerial assumptions. so you actually know this. i think people will look at you and get glazed that's not for sure that that's going to happen. as an insurance company you need to know and you are sure. >> the demographics are clear between 2000 and 2010, so history, the age group of 55 to 64 grew by 75%. >> wow. >> that's the group that's going to move into the entitlement arena. so i'd like to think about it differently than most. rather than debating it as a taxing problem or spending problem, it's a demographic challenge that we've never faced before. we've never faced what's going to come at us -- >> and it's combined with all the expensive medicine we're developing on a daily basis that you're going to try to get to ten times as many people. >> exactly. >> and the implications are serious. they're serious on the m community. in and of itself as people get older demand will go up. demand will go up. we're trying to reduce revenue.
reduce costs. these are really -- >> first i don't think there's one answer. i think there are many. and i think, for example, simpson-bowles is a pretty good one. if it were me, and just one, and i could be wrong about this, i'd go about it first by aggressively means testing social security. and really driving it to those people that it is supposed to help. and you could do that tomorrow. >> and it becomes welfare not a basic right. they won't let you do that. >> i think that these programs have become part of the american fabric. i believe that. and to have a serious discussion about eliminating it is really silly. we're not going to do that. >> they see means testing as eliminating it. >> it is what it is. we have a baby boom generation that has had an impact economically over its entire life span. if you track the baby boom you'll track investment in elementary schools when they first occurred. you'll see growth in secondary education. you'll see the housing bubble that was tied to the family formation of the baby boom.
and now they're about to hit retirement. >> it is great to come the generation right behind. it's like the field's already been raised -- >> the longer we wait the more those who are behind it are going to have to absorb the cost. >> right. >> and that's the urgency. >> that's not fair. >> we don't have a lot of time. i do want to talk to you about the earnings you put out. they were better than the street was expecting. you had catastrophic losses of $689 million after taxes. that was mostly sandy. but you did better than the street was expecting because you were able to get better margins out of things. are price increases already coming as a result of sandy or is this even before what we'll see down the road? >> this is before. before sandy. and i don't really know how impactful sandy will be in pricing. sandy was in the playbook. it was something that all of us in the industry had contemplated. so nothing dramatic. we started raising prices now three years ago, driven by two things. the decline in interest rates
unprecedented, and for a industry that invests in fixed income securities, that's a cost of. it's a -- it's a cost of what we do. and it's, as rates fell, we've got to reflect that in pricing. and importantly, we've embraced the nation that weather is different. i don't know why. i'm not a scientist. but, we do tend -- we're a industry that actually says recent results may be indicative of future results. sort of different from the mutual fund business. and if you're not impressed by what's happened to the weather in the last few years then you're just not keeping your eyes open. >> i'm not impressed. >> we had three storms twice as much as sandy in 1953 and '54. three storms that were twice as bad as sandy. >> the real dynamic of weather has been the tornadoes, and hailstorms, starting in 2010 -- >> right. but i remember variability myself. tornadoes -- people will use droughts in pakistan, they'll go all the way over to pakistan but they won't use the coldest
winter in china that we've had in 20 years. they don't use that one. >> 2005 was katrina wilma. >> we were thinking it was going to be every year. >> and 2006 and 2007 had no storms. >> we haven't had a category 3 in the longest period in a century. >> absolutely right. but the impressive part here has been the change of weather patterns in the midwest. the tornadoes and -- >> we can go back and have ten years of under --. >> could be. but we're an insurance company. >> you're making money hand over fist. >> people want to see more about overdraft where can they find it? >> pbs. it's on the website now shown in about 40% of the markets and it's going to continue to roll out. >> okay. we want to thank you very much for joining us today. we'll talk to you again soon. >> "squawk" will be right back. was brought in k with multiple lacerations to the wing and a fractured beak. surgery was successful, but he will be in a cast until it is fully healed, possibly several months. so, if the duck isn't able to work, how will he pay for his living expenses? aflac. like his rent and car payments? aflac.
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and go. you can even take a full-size or above. and still pay the mid-size price. i could get used to this. [ male announcer ] yes, you could business pro. yes, you could. go national. go like a pro. checking the futures right now as we head to a break, we got green arrows, 48 points up. the dow looks like coming up next we got swiss drugmaker roche forecasting a rise in sales and profits this year. ceo severyn schwan is going to join us on set to talk about the profit pipeline. this is for real this time. step seven point two one two. verify and lock. command is locked.
certain items. three cents below what the street was expecting. although mattel said it did well. it also raised its quarterly dividends to 36 cents from 31. rubbermaid earned 43 cents a share from the fourth quarter. the consumer productsmaker said it did well considering tough economic conditions in europe, as well as potentially negative factors. and some other news sony is rumored to be readying a playstation 4. although it won't confirm that the company is hosting a playstation event in february. on february 20th in new york it says it will only talk about the playstation business. joe i'll send it back over to you. >> thanks, beck. drugs. swiss drugmaker roche reporting earnings earlier this week. cancer drugs. all saw demand grow in 2012. what's on track for 2013? joining us now severin schwan, ceo at roche the world's largest maker of cancer medicine. great to see you. and watching your company
perform is in stark contrast to a lot of other drug companies. i wonder how much of it has to do with the relationship, your long relationship with genentech, which is now 100% owned by roche, and your headquarters in this country. >> morning, joe, great to be here. yeah, i think it has a lot to do with our strategy. our clear focus on innovation. our focus on medical differentiation, our focus on developing medicines and diagnostics which really make a difference. really going for medicines, which for long life, which improve the quality of life. that is what our strategy is about and i think that's what makes a difference. >> the reason i just mentioned genentech -- >> from san francisco. yes. yes, it'sen extremely research
entity, and that is key. that is key. and science and the progress of science and translating science into new medicines, that is what this industry is about. >> which would you say the industry and some of your competitors have failed to pursue that? i've seen them do -- spend money on making sure they get a patent extension by i new extended release version of a drug. or i've seen them -- i've seen them focus not necessarily on innovation and new growth that actually will create their own demand instead of trying to maintain something they had in the past. >> i'm actually quite positive about -- >> the whole industry? >> i'm quite positive about the industry. and there are two elements here. one is the industry has been going through what we refer to as the patent cliff. a number of important medicines have lost patents. and there's a side of that, you know, as a industry. we have been in a similar position, our patents are not yet expiring but for the industry as a whole i think we
have reached the bottom and will see more growth. what is even more important is the progress we see in science. there is a number of decisions that we start to understand, what is really going on on a molecular level, exactly. and that helps us to find new targets, and that results in new medicines. and as a piece of evidence for that, interesting to see that we see an increasing number of medicines being approved by the fda. last year again was a record year with 35 new molecular entities being approved. >> frustrating to watch because we sequence the genome what 15 years ago, and to go from the lab bench to the bedside is taking much longer than people thought. but you think that we're on the cusp -- >> absolutely. 15, 20 years ago we saw a tumor. but we had no clue what was happening inside the tumor.
now we really understand the tumor on a molecular basis. we understand the signaling pathways and as such we can target medicines very specifically and do something about it. and we've seen great progress in cancer. now if i look into diseases of the brain, neuroscience, it reminds me a bit of what has happened 10, 15 years ago in cancer. the brain has been a black box for many years. and that's the first time that we start to understand what are the col ek lar pathways, what are the real reasons for diseases. and that means we can do something about it. and as a side of that we have new medicines coming up in these ar areas. it's exciting. >> last question, severin. you, i mean, i'm not going to say it's all genentech but you do see more drug development coming out of your u.s. operations maybe than ones in europe. has the the difference in the
way we regulate our pharmaceutical industries in europe versus the united states has innovation been stifled in europe from, from price controls and other -- >> now, first of all, let me say that there is a number of interesting medicines also coming out of our research labs in europe. genentech has great science, and great medicines have come to patients, but equally we are on very interesting medicines in europe, as well. for example -- >> so you don't see any so you don't think that the different government policies of the -- >> yeah, i mean, bothed medicines which were developed in europe and the medicines which were involved in the u.s. are really made for the world. but i do agree with you, is that the fda is very open to real innovation and is helping to bring really differentiated medicines to patients quickly. >> i wish we had more time. and do a special on -- but anyway.
severin, thank you. >> thanks a lot. >> when we come back, houston texans owner bob mcnair will join us from new orleans to talk about this weekend's big game and business conditions. but before that, it has become an annual "squawk" tradition. the super bowl financial quiz. brian shactman joins us from the site of super bowl xlvii in new orleans with a preview. brian, we love these questions. >> becky, if you can ask anybody for a 15-second definition of sequestration. they're going to struggle. imagine what these guys had to say. ♪ [ male announcer ] every car we build must make adrenaline pump and pulses quicken. ♪ to help you not just to stay alive... but feel alive. the new c-class is no exception. it's a mercedes-benz through and through. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz
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if you play football and you make it to the super bowl, you don't want to run into brian shactman, it's a rite of passage, and not the normal media day, interview. it's the financial quiz bowl. where we ask players and coaches a variety of finance-related questions, they should all really watch cnbc for this happens, and then they'd be
better. and if this year is anything like past years, we're in for a real treat. we're not trying to make anyone look bad, brian, because we could not probably read those, you know, all those plays very well ourselves. but let's -- let's -- i can't wait to see this. you're in new orleans. you have the results. >> well, you know, what's interesting, joe. these guys eat, sleep and drink football and on media day they're not prepared for what they get. and they certainly were not prepared for us. >> what do you think is a better stock to invest in right now, facebook or twitter? >> twitter. >> twitter is probably not a publicly traded company. facebook is. >> what is sequestration? >> could you use it in a sentence? >> i have no idea. sequestration? >> sequestration. >> i don't know. sounds like a governmental spending on something that's unnecessary.
that's what it sounds like to me but i'm not certain. >> that's a good answer. >> your thoughts on the debt ceiling. >> no. >> you think we are in danger of a bond bubble? >> i don't even know what that is. >> which mario has done a better job monti or draghi? >> monti or draghi? you know i have no idea what you're talking about, so -- >> what's your favorite show on television? >> hmm. "american greed." >> really? >> yeah. >> can you open that up for me? >> oh! >> you just made my day. >> i wish we could show more of that stuff. that was michael james, guys. and he was touched. because he tweets about "american greed" all the time. and i went on to talk to him about his favorite show and he's like god forgive me, but the one when the preacher steals from the church, and he went through this whole thing about how that's his favorite show.
matt burke went to harvard he knows his stuff with the ravens and the kicker for the niners, he's a cramer guy and he's a conservative aaa-rated tax-free bond guy. >> i feel so bad for these guys because it's kind of like talking to me about football. if you ask me those questions, like oh, yeah. >> they would get angry when you're doing this? >> no the problem with this stuff, andrew, is that they have to talk to you. you know most of the time we prep what we're going to do. sometimes we went straight up to them. some of them clearly were like they've already had some ridiculous questions so they're like, okay, bring it on. >> they're ready for those. >> what's the temperature down there, brian? >> it's cold. it's actually pretty cold right now. the sun's about to come up. it's i don't know, i got the weather channel. what's the temp right now? >> 44. >> because you went with the -- you went with the sweater. you went with the sorkin sweater -- >> he's pulling it beautifully i might add. >> i've been on air three days in a row i've been sorkin
sweater every single day. >> love it. love it. working. working for you. but it's colder here and yet you're -- >> i may wear a sweater next week. it's supposed to get really cold here in new york next week. >> and there will be nowhere to -- >> you're not going to be here? >> no, i'm not. >> you should get a different color sweater every day. >> sweaters -- >> brian if you're back come on and you can wear your sweater, too. there you go. sorkin's sweater of the month. >> sweater of the day each day next week. all right, brian, have fun. >> do you have tickets, by the way, brian? you going to get to see the game? >> i don't. listen if the patriots were in it i was going to fight tooth and nail to stay. but i'll be hopefully with you guys on set monday morning. >> we look forward to seeing you back on monday. have a fun day today. it may just be days before the super bowl 2013 but our next guest has his eyes set on super bowl 2017. bob mcnair, he's the owner of the houston texans, and he joins us now with more on the business
of bringing the championship game back to houston. good morning, bob. >> good morning. good morning. nice to be with you. >> so, you've been listed a very famous man to help you bring the super bowl back in 2017. jim baker. how did that happen? >> jim is a friend of mine. been a friend for a long time. and he really represents houston better than anyone. and he's respected around the world, and all owners know who he is, and i just couldn't think of anyone that could represent our city better than jim baker. >> so how does it work? give us -- what's the jockeying behind the scenes? how does this happen now? >> well, we'll make a presentation, each of the cities will, but it's up to the owners, who vote on it, and it's just their own individual determination as to where they want to go, and of course, you know, they don't want to go to the same place over and over again so they move it around. and then we reward cities that have come up with new stadiums and given public support to it.
so there are a number of considerations like that. but, it really boils down to the preference of the owner. >> let's talk about the economics of the super bowl. how much is it worth to the host city? >> well, it's been estimated at anywhere $400 million to $600 million in terms of revenue that's generated. i think like here in new orleans i think they're over 5,000 media people here, alone. but you'll have more than twice as many people. i mean, if your stadium holds 75,000, you'll probably have 150,000 people in the city during that same period of time. but it's big, and the publicity you generate is just magnificent for the host city. >> is there money to be made for the -- but a lot of money goes to the league, i would think, right? how much of it does actually go to the team? >> andrew, most of it -- virtually all of it goes to the league. the team makes a little bit, not much. that's not tivation. the motivation is what it does for your city and for your fan base. it does help the local team in terms of generating support,
sponsors view your brand as being stronger, and it's easier to sell sweets if you've got a super bowl coming up. so, there's some indirect benefits. but, direct monetary benefit is not significant. >> bob, this is kelly king. fellow north carolinians. how are you today? >> fine. the tar heels doing okay? >> they're doing great, thanks. bob, just mention for the public's perspective, you know, our bank's been down there only a few years and the whole can-do positive attitude in texas is so exciting. i would think people would want to have the tournament down there. >> oh, yes it's great. we would have bid 2016, also they asked us to bid but we've got the ncaa final four that year and so we had to move some dates around at reliant stadium in order to accommodate that. but no, houston is exciting. you know, and the city is doing great. we added 85,000 new jobs last year, and you know, it's leading the country in terms of general business prosperity. >> who are you up against?
who else is competie ining for ? >> we'll have san francisco and south florida bidding for 2016. and then the loser of that will compete with us for 2017. so we really don't know. >> now if the 49ers win does that help them at all here? >> well, i think -- well i would say yes, probably. but, the fact that they're building a new stadium i think that's the strongest thing going for them. and we typically reward cities that have just gotten a new stadium. so, you know, i'd say that would probably make them the favorite. >> bob, did the debt game with the patriots and with the ravens, did that suddenly make you think wow these ravens the patriots handled you guys and you know you did something, j.j. watt and my bengals for two straight years, i don't know, but, did that show you something with the ravens the way they handled the patriots after the patriots beat up on you guys? >> well, that just shows you, if you don't play your best, any of
these teams can beat you. and when we played the patriots they played very well against us. they didn't drop balls. they didn't make mistakes. and they beat us. we didn't play our best. we didn't make the plays when we needed to. then when they played the ravens, the ravens made the plays and the patriots didn't. and that was the ball game. so both these teams are, you know, great teams and here in the super bowl we've got a great match-up. and you know, i think the 49ers maybe have a little more talent. but i think there's emotional edge for baltimore, and you know, that will be the question. will emotion overcome a little edge in talent, or will talent prevail? but i think it would be a good game. >> ariane foster, you always get worried when you think of something like is it open heart did he have to have or what would -- >> no, it's supposedly minor surgery. >> what they do on somebody else, you know that expression, right? >> yeah, that's right when it's your neighbor. that's like when he's out of work it's the recession.
when you're out of work it's a depression. >> exactly. all right well we wish him luck, and you as well, bob. >> thank you. thank you. we're looking forward to a great super bowl and look forward to seeing you all again. >> that would be great. bob mcnair have a great time this weekend. coming up, much more from our guest host kelly king of bb&t and take a look at the lineup for the next hour because it's all going to be about the january jobs report. moody's steve chist mark zandi, former council of economic advisers chairman austan goolsbee and jared bernstein. their predictions and reaction to the number in a special jobs friday hour of "squawk box" that you can only see here on cnbc. and don't forget you can find "squawk box" online and on mobile, too. follow us on twitter @squawkcnbc is the handle. like us on facebook if you want a little thumbs up, and you can of course visit us on our show page squawk.cnbc.com. and there's been a lot of new stuff that's been going off on these pages so check it out.
welcome back, everybody. let's chat with's guest host kelly king who is chairman and ceo of bb&t. we were talking about how businesses want to be optimistic, ceos want to be optimistic. what's holding them back? >> well, a continuing concern about all of the areas of uncertainty. it's interesting, ceos want to do business. they want to grow. they want to add employees. that's how we make money.
that's how we reward our shareholders. and for almost five years now everybody's been holding back. you know, not making investments. and so the question is why not now? but for ceos to make long-term investments they have to have a certain degree of reasonableness in terms of expectations. and so today, you know, people say we should feel better because of we quote/unquote got past the fiscal cliff. we didn't do anything. we put it down the road aways. we still have these questions about taxation, about health care, about entitlements. are we ever really going to rein in government spending. that leaves a ceo with a sense of frustration, if not depression, about where things are going. >> that has to leave a banker with a sense of frustration if not depression, as well, because the fed is punishing you for any funds that you're not putting in to investments at this point. you're not getting anything back. >> that's right. the fed has arbitrarily pushed rates down to extraordinary lows. and it's really hard for bank
balance sheets. and so we have to think in terms of how to work around that fictitious type of interest rate scenario. >> how do you do that? >> well, so you really can't do it on the asset side in terms of bonds. typically we have much more income today coming from our investment portfolio. so, loans are not growing very rapid by because the economy is slow. so what we have to do is cut costs, and then in a case like ourselves, we look for other areas of strategic opportunity >> are there new areas you've gotten into that you haven't been in the past? >> yeah, we have. for example, we really got opportunities for us. this year we're doubling our operations, adding 30 new commercial branches which is a large investment. we're expanding our corporate lending business to a national platform. we've mostly been in the eastern part of the country. we have a really growing group of special odds lending businesses. so we've got some unique opportunities. and i think that's what other companies try to do.
>> the good news is you're building out that infrastructure for when things turn a little bit. when things get more confident you will be there. >> which is precisely right. we and i think most companies are poised for growth. they're ready to invest. and i know it just stems my value, it really is as simple as having a clear vision, a runway if you will, in terms of where we're going. that's all about positive leadership out of washington. >> we'll continue this conversation with kelly king. he's with us for the rest of the program. when we come back we'll be joined by zandi, bernstein and goesby. not a law firm this is our jobs panel coming up at the top of the hour so we can talk about jobs friday. and then we get money drunk with the ceo of beam. that's one of the nation's largest spirit companies. that interview is just ahead. "squawk box" will be right back. . otherworldly things. but there are some things i've never seen before. this ge jet engine can understand 5,000 data samples per second. which is good for business. because planes use less fuel, spend less time on the ground and more time in the air.
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jobs data that could move the markets. we'll get the january employment report at 8:30 a.m. eastern. our panel is ready with some final predictions. we'll break down the numbers. >> plus the ceo of beam is going to join us and he spent some spirits to help us either celebrate job growth or drown our sorrows away as we get a weak numbers.
ed the third hour of "squawk box" starts right now. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. our guest host is kelly king, chairman and ceo of bb&t bank and we are counting the minutes and seconds to 8:30, because that's when we're going to get the january jobs report. you're looking at a live shot of the official neighbor department clock. what date did we do it in december, steve? has it been four weeks? >> i'll have to check. >> so it's really -- >> the 8th. >> it can't be the 8th. >> but it was a quick turnaround. we were just here. >> really? >> i wasn't here. >> it was a pretty good -- >> you mean january was good?
the 4th? >> yeah, that's what i mean. >> i think they did it late, didn't they? i don't know it just came around really fast. >> do you know what happened yesterday? >> you made some ridiculous comments. >> ridiculous -- >> you had to do this torturous calisthenics to get the idea that maybe capitalist was treated better in the private sector. >> i understood what you were saying. >> we've assembled our -- we've assembled our -- >> got it. >> he finally came around to that. >> it was painful. >> question about austerity. >> it was painful. >> going to be short-term pain for long-term gain. >> that's right. i was just yelled at by the producer. >> we've assembled our panel of -- thank god -- bring us predictions and analyze the data. austan goolsbee, who -- he was just here. jared bernstein is almost a coanchor and mark zandi who's been nailing the adp numbers
>> now the pressure is on. >> now i get nervous about this day. every monthist like -- >> what is the exact number you gave us on -- >> 192. that's private sector. >> which is good. >> joining us in a few minutes. i think exxon is reporting, as well, there was another dow component earlier. andrew, merck. >> yep. >> want to tell us about america? >> dow component merck did report 83 cents a share. a two cent beat. revenue also topping expectations. the company has been cutting costs in an attempt to soft be the hit from increased generic competition. and joe, what's -- >> exxon mobil, the headline number is 220 versus the $2 that the street was expecting. we have a net income number of 9.9 billion dollars. >> oh. >> what was the estimate? >> no, i mean -- 9.9. they used to do 10 billion in a quarter. which -- >> they're ahead of that if
prices continue like they are. 97 dollars for crude oil. we get this release a little slower. but they do have a conference call. our producer is listening in and is telling us what they're saying right now as it's coming out. >> is apple back above now? it's neck and neck each day depending on what apple does. $410 billion market cap. called higher today for exxon on these numbers. >> you like that horse race? >> called up a dollar. >> what does that horse race mean? is that like old economy, new economy? they think we're going to run out of oil. but we never ran out of stone in the stone age but that ended. for me, if i own a millionth of something i think i'd rather own a millionth of exxon on a millionth of apple, wouldn't you? >> i think i could -- i think it makes more sense for exxon to be worth more. the world seems to make more sense. >> ninth century england in running out of coal. they thought it was a huge crisis on the way.
>> every -- >> actually the opposite is -- >> a lot of cases. >> we learn how -- >> that's capitalism at its best. >> didn't used to happen. >> right. we got to get through have another one of those moments. >> i'm going to give you a moment. >> let's get to a couple other sorries. we do have a very important update. a suicide bomber has detonated an explosive device at the entrance of the u.s. embassy in the turkish capital of ankara. a police official told the associated press that at least two people are dead. the u.s. ambassador to turkey says that one of the embassy's turkish staffs killed. we're going to continue to monitor that situation and bring you updates as we get them. some other sad news to bring you this morning. former new york city mayor ed koch, combative politician who rescued the city from near financial ruin during three city hall terms has died at the age of 88. koch served as new york city mayor from 1978 to 1989, and his tight fiscal policies pulled the
city out of financial difficulties. >> let's take a look at the markets this morning. you are going to see at least at this point some green arrows for where the futures are trading. dow futures up by 62 points above fair value. s&p futures are up by more than 5 points, close to 5.5 points. and this is all coming after an incredibly strong month of january. we watch through this the first trading day of february. but we did watch through the end of january. for the month, the dow industrials were up by 5.77%. the dow transports were up an unbelievable 9.37%. the s&p 500 up better than 5%. the nasdaq up better than 4%. this was the best month of january for the dow industrials since 1994. the best for dow transports since 1991 and the best for the s&p 500 since 1997. a lot to live up to today but again you are seeing some green arrows before we get those jobs numbers. right now as we get into the first trading day of february. >> merck down a dollar. >> why?
>> they reported earnings. i don't know what was wrong with the earnings but that's not helping the dow. but exxon is. >> as you can see right there, there's a look. 1.76%. >> 42.49. if you were watching overseas you did see some red arrows at least with south korea and some of the other markets. i think australia was trading higher in overseas activities there. european markets have some green arrows. cac up by about 1%. some modest gains in london and in germany. let's get the countdown to the january jobs report. we are less than 24 minutes away, we have assembled our panel of experts to go through their final predictions before we get the numbers. mark zandi is the chief economist at moody's an litics. austan goolsbee is the chairman of the former economic advisers under president obama. and jared bernstein is former economic adviser to vice president biden. he's a senior fellow at the
center on budget and policy priorities and a cnbc contributor. of course we have steve liesman with us and our guest host today kelly king who is chairman and ceo of bb and t. let's go down the line. we were just talking a little bit, mark, about your adp prediction. the number was private payrolls. what are you looking for? >> 180,000 jobs. and unemployment rate stays steady at 7.8%. >> you're a little ahead. >> what is consensus? >> 160 to 166 depending on which one, i think thompson was at 160. >> i actually think if you had done one overnight, i think it's crept up. i think the expectation on the street is a bit higher than this 166 right now. >> why is that? >> because of adp. because of a bunch of other things. people seem to have gotten a little more optimistic. i read about half a dozen reports this morning, they were all in the 180, 190 range. >> did the issue impact -- >> everybody's throwing that out. i'm a little more pessimistic than the consensus here. i don't come up with numbers. but i would takes under of goolsb goolsbee.
>> is the view that the gdp thing maybe hits in two or three months? >> i just think the environment of the fourth quarter was one where people were not conducive to hiring. it's not clear to me that people brought on added employees. >> he says he's taking your number austin. what's your number? >> around 1:55. you know, around consensus but shaded a little on the soft side. because i just don't see growth being that high. i don't think -- i think we'll likely get some recessions on that fourth quarter number. because the employment data wasn't as bad as the gdp number was. it's still not great. the growth rate is not high enough. until it gets well up above 2% i don't think we're going to get th that. >> unemployment rate 7.8%? >> i think we probably stay the same on that. >> jared how about your numbers? >> 160 overall, 170 in the private sector. so 10,000 down in the public.
i discount the fourth quarter kwpd. the things that really brought that number down i think is well known now. the inventory component, which was very volatile jumps around. that's a change of the change. and then the defense piece which seemed to have some anomalies towards the end of the year, so i don't think that's so much of an issue. i'm kind of where austin is. if you look at the year over year gdp growth it's 1.5%. the year over year kind of smooths out some of those volatility issues. that's below trend. i guess right now, trend growth, gdp probably around 2%. it seems like when we're hitting two we were getting jobs numbers in the 150 to 170 range. so we're probably a little below that right now. >> i think trend is probably still 2%, 2.5%. when all the data come in, come out. the key thing in this report is the benchmark revisions. once a year, the bls benchmarks
this survey based data. actual employment counts for unemployment insurance records. >> you mean rather than the political -- >> rather than -- >> this is -- this is a pure count of jobs based on the actual tax related -- >> actual number. we know of march that's going to be revised by 400 k. it's likely to revise the whole rates of growth since then. >> i want to stop you there. because what happens, if this exercise is we get the revisions due march of 2012 for the prior 12 months then the market has to kind of reagist the expectation and think you know what from marchianward, including today, where are things? in general, the post bench mark numbers tend to go in the direction of the prebenchmark. so if you added 400, then you can kind of begin to feel like we may be 30, 40, 50,000 higher than the number being reported right now. >> yeah, so the monthly average monthly job gain of the past year, for the past two years has been 150,000.
so with this revision, we'll have to see but it could be closer to 175. >> so -- >> things are better than we think? or -- >> yeah, so well a couple things. it may mean that the gdp numbers are going to be revised up to be more consistent. we don't know. we're going to get big revisions to that this summer. but also could be productivity grows a lot slower. >> let me have one more thing. we're also going to do population estimates. the whole unemployment rate gets a step -- remember last year at this time we had at 0.2 change in the unemployment rate? it was a big deal becky you were here. >> how can you not remember this? >> 0.2 stepdown all this you know yelling and screaming about the government doing all this stuff. but anyway, we'll get the same thing again the expectation is that it won't be as extreme because last year what they did was they took the census numbers and plugged them in and now they're just doing a revision. should not be as big but just be prepared at 8:30, going to be a lot of data, leaning heavily an
zandi and bernstein here and austan. >> kelly real quickly, your point? >> you have to look at the long-term employment. ceos just don't make decisions. you don't hear gdp was plus 0.1 or hooir a lot of people it's really about strategic initiative which is based on expectations and longer-term view. i'm with you. i'm a little on the conservative side. >> that's bb&t on the conservative side. >> exactly. but i think that the real issue is, there's still been no change over the last several months in terms of optimism, and until that changes, you're not going to see much change in growth. you might go 150, 160, 170 but we need real change -- >> we did some survey data and it seems like the sense that we might hit the debt ceiling and not have it roll over that seems to be coming out of the market. right? i mean the idea that europe is aflame. that seems to come out of the market. it feels like some of the worst case scenarios. i'm not saying good scenarios
but the worst case seems to be out. >> i think what you've got there is temporary psychological reaction. real -- temporarily feel kind of good then i fell down and say but nothing really good happened. >> the worst thing didn't happen. >> i feel like defusing these miss cal bombs gets a lot more credit than it should. like it feels good like when you stop banging yourself on the head with a hammer it feels good. what we ought to be thinking about is how we can actually increase the rate of growth, particularly on the job side, so instead of just kind of solving these traps we set for ourselves -- >> guys, i think as we should say every month, don't put too much on any one month. remember, the payroll numbers, plus or minus 100,000. and so when the expectation is 150,000 plus or minus 100,000, that's a lot of variability. it's not unlike comparing exxon to apple. and if we said instead of who's the most valuable, what's the
difference between apple and exxon that number is going to bop up and down and all over the place. that's what we do here. we've got a ton of hires and a ton of layoffs. we take the difference, we don't want to get too much over just the average that comes from the growth rate. >> on the household -- the confidence interval on the household survey is 400,000 for employment. that is -- if employment growth is below 400,000 on the household survey, it could be zero. >> all right, guys, stay right there. we're going to continue this conversation as we count down towards that january jobs report. >> okay. coming up as becky just said we are counting down to that january report at 8:30 a.m. eastern. there you can see the time, a little over 15 minutes we're going to get back to our panel for some final predictions in just a moment. but first, beam is out with its fourth quarter earnings. earlier this morning. and it's beating expectations on the top and the bottom line. the ceo is going to be joining us next to talk about the appetite for spirits, the slow
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there you go. >> welcome back to "squawk." beam reporting fourth quarter earnings topping estimates by a penny. the company's ceo joins us now. matthew i'm holding, you should know, a bottle here of maker's mark. we haven't opened it yet but when this interview is over we might do it. give us a sense of what just happened this past quarter. >> thank you. well we had a very good year. it was our first full year as a stand alone company and beam beat our expectations. sales were up 6% on a comparable basis. our epf was up 13% so we're delighted about those results and pleased about the fact that
it continued into the fourth quarter. >> is this something that can hold up in the liquor business right now? there's talk about a lot more growth in this business in part because we do have an economy that's coming back and i also think people drank during the swoon. >> absolutely. the great thing about the spirits industry is that it rides very well throughout most economic conditions and our performance during the past year has been very consistent and very positive. our industry does reflect the ups and downs of the economy. i was listening to your conversation earlier about the u.s. economy and certainly over the last year we've seen the u.s. market growing at about the 3% to 4% level and seen a return to premiumization which reflects increased consumer confidence and we've seen pricing -- >> it's inelastic. one thing we do see is like people move between hard liquor and it seems like there's cycles. they go back to beer and wine, hard liquor, beer and wine. where are we now? >> well, we've had a very good experience in the spirits industry. we've seen increase in share of
overall alcohol consumption over the past ten years about 40 basis points from beer and from wine and i think that is a resurgence of the cocktail culture which is certainly showing no signs of slowing down. >> is it less calories to drink hard liquor? >> not to say. in alcohol the calories are in the -- >> not just the beer -- >> i think what you're seeing in spirits is a number of benefits, overall variety and a lot of choice -- >> you can't get around it. you can't, you drink wine you get fat, you drink beer you get fat, you drink liquor you get fat. but it's worth it. >> it will work out. >> it's better than no liquor. >> got to put in a commercial for you. we're not started drinking hard spirits years ago, jim beam was my favorite. favorite for years, years, years. really good product. >> but now -- >> but i do switch to maker's mark. >> okay. so -- >> delighted those are both our brands. if you ever get a chance to visit us in kentucky we just
opened our new jim beam america experience. we'd be delighted to show you around. >> thanks, i appreciate that. we have banks down there, i'll stop by. >> consolidation question for you. there's been a lot of consolidation in your industry already. do you expect to see more? and perhaps given what's happened with this big beer deal, inbev, what do you make of that? >> well, consolidation is a trend that's talked about continuously in the market, and certainly we are a business that's very much set on our light as an independent company. i wouldn't be able to comment on the deal. >> are you looking at that just given that there has been so much chatter about transactions in your space and whether or not regulators would allow something at this point? >> absolutely. and clearly consolidation is something which is spoken about a lot as you say. we do about 38 million cases of business of spirit sales a year and we see about that many rumors so we just focus on driving value for ourselves. >> one last regulatory question there has been talk about allowing spirit makers, or
potentially to sell their goods online. that's been something that has not really happened thus far. do you see that opening up? not in the short term. i think in the united states we have a very clear governance in terms of the three-tier system. separation between the manufacturer, distributor and retailer and i think those rules will remain in place. >> matt, how long will you see people being able to come along and just do like a gray goose put in a fancy bottle or do a petron, and i don't even know if the stuff is any better you charge a premium price, get a fancy bottle and you make a billion dollars. that trend, can that go on forever like that? >> i think that brands are fundamentally conposed of the quality of the liquid inside as well as the relationship they build with the consumer. we're very much committed to the quality and integrity of our product. our bourbon is a great example of that. going back to 1795. we care very much about what we put inside and try to present that to consumers in fun, relevant and interesting way. >> matt, thank you for this.
thank you for the bottles. we do have the jobs numbers coming up. we might have to pop these things open. we'll see you in a bit. >> please enjoy them. >> more of our guest host, john -- >> ponytail. >> petron. out of nowhere. there was no such thing. >> sam hager we talked to him. a new tequila and now he has a new rum. >> and you introduce it, fanfare. you say it's better. you charge more. and grey goose was classic the way they do that. >> because -- >> coming up we're getting closer to 8:30 a.m. in the january employment report. economists expect an increase of 166,000 nonfarm payrolls. the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 7.8. ♪ [ male announcer ] every car we build must make adrenaline pump and pulses quicken. ♪ to help you not just to stay alive... but feel alive.
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that was batman my rooster friend. welcome back to "squawk box." among the other stories we're following this morning. airbus has studied alternatives to lithium-ion batteries for its next jet the a350 but it's standing by the modern power pack. airbus says it has time to adapt to any rule changes prompted by the problems that have grounded rival boeing's 787 dreamliner. and sony is rumored to be readying a playstation 4. although the company won't confirm that it is hosting a playstation event on february 20th in new york. it says only that it will talk about the playstation business.
when we come back, we are just a couple of minutes away from the january employment report. we've been watching the futures ahead of that and after an incredibly strong start to the year with the month of january, you can see things are off to another strong start for the first trading day of february. right now the dow futures up by 76 points. s&p futures up by better than 6.5. ♪ [ construction sounds ] ♪ [ watch ticking ] [ engine revs ] come in. ♪ got the coffee. that was fast. we're outta here. ♪ [ engine revs ] ♪ we don't let frequent heartburn come between us and what we love. so if you're one of them people who gets heartburn and then treats day after day... block the acid with prilosec otc
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welcome back to "squawk box." we are now just 19 seconds away from the january employment report. we'll check the futures now. 74 points, exxon helping the dow at least this morning. although merck is not helping. cnbc's hampton pearson joins us from the labor department. he already knows the numbers, too. so let's look at his page and see if he can tell anything. hampton? >> up 157,000. january nonfarm payrolls increased by 157,000 jobs. 7.9% is the unemployment rate. 0.2% is the gain in average hourly earnings. private sector job growth in january up 166,000. we had significant revisions for november and december. an additional 86,000 jobs from
what had previously been reported for november. an additional 41,000 for december. 127,000 for the two months combined. however, those revisions incorporate the annual bench mark revisions. i'll get to that in a few moments. top job gains in the month of january, retail trade plus 33,000. construction plus 28,000. health care, plus 23,000. job losses, transportation and warehousing, down 14,000. couriers and messengers down 8,000. government employment down 9,000. most of that is the federal level, including 4400 postal workers. long-term unemployment at 4.7 million. 38.1%. that was down 1% over the month. the labor force participation rate unchanged at 63.6%. the u-6 unemployment rate 14.4% also unchanged for three straight months. here's some headlines from the annual benchmark revisions to both the employment survey and the household survey. the annual benchmark revision
for march 2012, that's the benchmark month each month an increase in jobs by 422,000. the population estimates for december increased by 138,000. when you put it all together, and to kind of close out the books on 2012, a net gain of 2.2 million jobs for the full year. back to you guys. >> great. thanks. let's get back to our panel. jared here, austin, rick santelli joining us. kelly king also. austan your friends at the administration they tell you 157 and if you use you go to 155 so you just don't hit it exactly? >> i don't know why you guys don't listen to me. i give you the number every month. why won't you listen to me? >> you are good. >> it's amazing. you're the guy -- you're like zandi but this is a closer cropped hair. i've got to keep remembering that. >> i'm not as well paid. >> not as well.
wait a minute. >> you're working -- >> didn't we join some kind of -- >> -- that's right. >> -- rolling -- >> bankster in training i guess is what you call you. jared, disappointing a little bit, i guess? in the rate went up also. jared? >> yes, what happened with the rate. i mean it went up to 7.9% and i guess you had an increase, i'm trying to get whether it was an increase in the unemployed over here -- >> employed fell 110, unemployed rose 117. the workforce virtually unchanged plus 7,000. >> okay. >> sort of on the high side. >> over the last several months. >> this is very much what i expect that i had 160 on payrolls, and 166 on private. so -- >> but the revisions are up >> have you noticed the revisions are up. >> if you're looking for an
optimistic take, i think when you look at some revisions, november and december, november, 247,000 with 256 in the private workforce. 202 is the private workforce in december. those are the two months -- this is the private workforce that the fiscal cliff -- joe? >> rick, we are able, every month, and i saw you on camera there. we are able to, if there are bright spots, we find them, do we not? >> well, that's a -- >> i got -- >> yeah, i guess -- let's put it this way, if there are any bright spots or not, the left side of that stage will find them. >> can i say -- >> hold on, rick. hold on. which part of 256,000 private sector jobs in november is not bright? which part of 202,000 private sector jobs in december is not bright? which part of increasing --
>> i don't know -- >> the total workforce by 422,000 in the twelve months ending march is not bright? you consider it not bright when america's -- >> how many -- hey steve don't put words in my mouth comrade. listen if you look at how many months our jobs numbers were greater than population for the year 2012, you won't find very many. that's all i'm going to say. >> what are you talking about? >> in all fairness -- >> i won't put words in your mouth, rick, but i do insist you make sense. >> in all fairness to rick, the january number was on the soft side. right? i mean, hours worked declined during the month. >> that's where i don't care, mark, because what's happening is these revisions are up. and the point i was trying to make and maybe throw out to the panel here is, the 422, the previous upward revision is this one 166 essentially an understated number? what was your first adp number that you guys came out with for november? >> oh, geez.
>> all right. >> i can't -- >> anyway the question is whether or not the numbers are closer in line to that than maybe this, this -- >> well the numbers had been higher -- >> -- is closer to what the adp was. >> that's my point. right. that's my point, is that maybe it's, i don't know, you said 175. 175, is it a 200,000 private sector job economy out of there? >> well, i think -- >> you're missing the big picture. what's happening here is it's an elaborate left wing plot to make the numbers much better several months after the election, so that nobody thinks that there was a conspiracy -- >> well that proves the conservative point that liberals are idiots, right? because if they're to upgrade the numbers after the election -- >> i think there's -- >> out of the mouths of babes. >> i think this is an interesting report. i mean for one thing, you have a real acceleration, in employment growth in the fourth quarter of last year, that goes completely the other way from the gdp.
i mean you're looking here at numbers, 247 payroll jobs, 247k in november, 196 in december. and then a bit of a deceleration in january. i mean the january number, 157 is about what you'd expect given the kind of trend growth in the economy. so actually, you got a nice little pop towards the end of last year in employment growth. that these numbers are not only revising kwlupward. >> i think the bottom line is if you look through the ups and downs, the monthly vagaries of the data the economy is still where it was a year ago and two years ago, still growing 2%, 2.5% on gdp and employment is still chugging along at 150, 175k per month. just enough to get the unemployment rate -- >> what does this say about the gdp number that we saw does it make that an outlier and you just said it for me because even though you ow saw minus 0.1 you just said we're still 2 -- >> we are. right now going into q1 we're tracking 2% to 2.5%. so i don't think anything
fundamental has changed. and i agree with kelly we're not going anywhere fast until businesses kick in and we won't kick in -- >> it's weird to hear because it was down 0.1. so it wasn't -- it was a down 0.1. >> a q4. >> right. >> but q3 we're up 3.1. i mean the numbers are up and down and all around quarter to quarter. >> it's almost like -- >> wasn't it? >> like the high score and low score you throw the if you don't like it? >> it's not that you don't like it. trend, right. you want to take the effects of sandy out. you want to take the effects of a weird defense number that -- >> mark can we just get to gdp, what joe's talking about, weekly hours declining? it looks like the percentage -- what does this say? average weekly hours 33.6, 33.7, the percent change up 0.3. if hours decline does that change the gdp forecast? does that have an influence? >> yeah, sure because you take the number of jobs created, ultimate ply by change in hours
worked and gives you a sense in the change of aggregate hours. >> okay. >> and that plus productivity growth issued to gdp. so if you get a decline in weekly hours, all else being equal -- >> so what's your -- >> jared just hold on one second. >> average weekly hours have been the same for three months in a row. >> i want to understand two things right now. mark, what is your gdp forecast for the first quarter of this year? what kind of economy? >> 2%. >> 2%. and i want to know, austan or jared, this number here, these numbers we got today, revising up november and december substantially, does it change your opinion at all, start with jared i guess, about how many jobs this economy is creating? jared? >> yeah, i think we did a little better in the fourth quarter than i thought, i'm probably a little different than mark. i totally agree with mark that underlying we're kind of in the 150 to 170 range but i'm going to have to crunch these a little more carefully. 2.2 million over the year that's a little better than i thought we did and the benchmark revision is in there. i think we've been doing a
little bit better on the job creation front than i thought before looking at these numbers. although nothing, no great shape. >> usually i agree with rick. for your best month to be in the 250 range, that's not that bright. it's okay. but 2% is not that good. we've got to get a lot faster. >> i think that's to my point here. whether it's a little slower or a little faster is not the key. the key is moving slowly. we're moving so slowly we're not really improving the economy, not really putting things back to work and we've got to keep focusing on the long-term issues here. >> now, what's clear to me is that austan's off the show. right? >> after siding with rick on that. i agree, austan. i see what you're saying in that 250 is a good number. my only point that i would make is we're doing 50,000 more private sector jobs than i thought we were doing. >> that's what i'm saying. >> and that makes me optimistic. >> makes me optimistic but it makes me feel like the job
market is a little better than i thought it was. look the fact that the unemployment rate is stuck at 8% you just can't get away from that. and that's been just a problem now for a long time. >> jared, talked about this off camera. the problem is you want to do something about it. and i know that you're sincere in it but i said the stuff that jared wants to do is probably 180 degrees from what someone else might want to do. i think what you want to do -- >> who do you mean like john boehner? >> i think you would acknowledge that the private sector has to do it but you would say that the government has a very important role in doing something to help the private sector. >> exactly. >> whereas other people would say that it's the government itself that is actually hurting the private sector. >> that's two sides of the coin that we're on right now. >> so here's this weird argument i've heard in the last few days sounds a little bit like where you're going which is that, you know, if you see in the fourth quarter gdp that contraction in government spending led to
slower growth, and somehow people are out there saying and that shows you have to meet to cut government spending more in the near term. i think that's exactly backwards. i actually think that there is a role right now, not a big one, but there is a role for some more stimulus and more jobs measures to help start nudging that unemployment rate -- >> besides the trillion that we spend we don't take in besides that trillion dollars spending stimulus? >> and the fed -- >> -- the deficit. >> right. >> in addition to that. just want to be clear. >> yeah, you're right. >> one point here which is that i don't know if any economist who when you tell them to factor in nearer term government spending cuts -- >> no -- >> end up raising up -- >> but they do, joe -- >> outlie years. >> let him finish. >> he's saying that -- you weren't watching yesterday. but he's saying you can't -- it's the near-term effect of austerity and government spending that could hurt. >> correct. >> the thing is, we're told that during a recession the government comes in and supplies
the demand that isn't there from the private sector. it's been 4 1/2 years. it's been 4 1/2 years. do we ever take the training wheels off? >> we already have -- >> mark knows this -- >> the debate isn't actually more stimulus. the debate is how much restraint there should be. right? >> i think jared would want -- >> he said do things to create jobs -- >> you would come up -- >>-ish he means less cuts. >> -- you don't mean less cuts do you, jared? you would actually do some stuff, right? >> sooim i'm saying that we should avoid any near-term cuts in spending that will take the austerity measures -- in fact we're already doing it -- and secondly, i would -- wait, secondly, i would add, i would do an infrastructure program right now. something in the 30 to 30 -- >> you know the sandy reconstruction if you look at that, that's been is a form of stimulus. it's at 60 billion if you add it
all up that's like an infrastructure. not all going to come in 2013 but to some degree that's all -- >> we open -- >> we should -- >> we do know it's not we don't want a bunch of that stuff happening. >> no, absolutely not. but all i'm saying -- >> it's not a good way -- >> the deficit as a percent of gdp has been coming down. and the debate we had the one that you said was general and i said was more open what's the pace of that slope, what's the -- >> that's not -- >> that's what i'm talking about -- >> you were able to get to the point that maybe at some point, private sector -- >> but what i need to see, what i would like to see is a -- is some explanation to me that right now, the government sector is crowding out the private sector. i don't see that if i had a 6% interest rate, i would understand why -- >> what about student loans? what about health care? >> in 2009 the federal government added 2.5% to gdp growth in that year. in 2010 they added half a point. in 2011 it was zero. in 2012 it was minus one. and in 2013, it was --
>> government -- >> that's the whole -- >> government should be -- >> -- that is exactly the script we should follow. in a recession we want the government to provide support and cushion the downturn. and when the economy gets going we want the government -- there's government activism that isn't measured in dollar terms. >> agreed. >> regulatory stuff -- >> when the two sides -- >> what the government -- >> i agree with you, joe. >> there's one side that thinks that the government is a necessary part -- i don't know, kind of underpin the process and there's another that thinks that the government is actually -- >> if you talk to business people on the street today, without the technical discussion, they'll tell you government is a big problem. they're in the way, whether it's crowding out or not crowding out they are inhibiting investment, they're inhibiting growth and they are the big problem. >> but if you think that government's the big problem i think you've got to explain why the u.s. growth rate as modest as it is is basically the
fastest in the advanced world. it's really not -- >> the growth rate to be totally proud of. we are europe. we are europe. we are europe. >> austan, we're -- >> we're not europe, rick. >> austan -- >> see this is why i said we are like europe. it's not necessarily our data is exactly the same, but it's the notion that you guys, you economists, you ivy leaguers, are so proud of the horrible level that it is because it's better -- you've got a banker -- >> tells you what it is -- >> guys. all right, stop. everybody's mike get turned off right now, thank you. this is catching the attention of the twitter sphere at this point. ben white from politico is treating the blow by blow -- >> austan goolsbee misses by
two-k very angry -- rick santelli yelling. no. thank you guys. we appreciate it. we do need to tell you about the while we were talking jobs chevron actually reported quarterly results. the energy giant came in with fourth quarter earnings of $3.70 a share. the results include a gain of 1.4 billion from an upstream asset exchange it's unclear if ets is comparable. dow futures are up by about 105 points which means that we are about 35 points away from dow 14,000. if you add in all of these things that are coming. >> what kind of world do we live in where trillion dollar deficits are called austerity. >> we've got -- >> coming up, we've got lots of companies hoping to cash in on this weekend's super bowl but one apparel maker in particular is hoping to turn a profit from jersey sales. brian shactman's going to bring us that story. ♪
[ male announcer ] every car we build must make adrenaline pump and pulses quicken. ♪ to help you not just to stay alive... but feel alive. the new c-class is no exception. it's a mercedes-benz through and through. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers through mees-benz financial services.
through mees-benz all stations come over to mithis is for real this time. step seven point two one two. verify and lock. command is locked. five seconds. three, two, one. standing by for capture. the most innovative software on the planet... dragon is captured. is connecting today's leading companies to places beyond it. siemens. answers.
welcome back to "squawk box." brian shactman outside the mercedes-benz super bowl in new orleans. i want to talk a little bit about nike. last year they signed a five-year $1.1 billion deal with the nfl. and some estimates have it adding but a half a billion a year in top line revenue. it's interesteding to look at this, because it's actually a process. teams -- and this is fascinating -- they can only
change their designs every five years. nike has to sell it to the market overall but can't do it all at once right away. >> with the teams and ownership in terms of how they want to present themselves on their field, their colors, their branding, just their complete identity of what a uniform is on that field of play. we work hand in hand with them in that process. >> todd van horne is their designer. sam poser who covers nike said it's a good deal for nike, but thought they could have done a better job with things like the rg3, robert griffin iii craze. his jersey sales were still the best ever. but they still ho to scramble to add inventory. it probably won't happen again. joe, moving forward, next year they want to outfit the sidelines and get a lot more material that consumers can buy right away like jackets and stuff like that. >> yep. all right.
pretty good hits, brian. you're doing this all day, right? >> a little bit all day. until you don't want me. >> no, i still -- if i can make a call and get you tickets, do you want to go? i can't, but if i could. would you -- >> if the bosses would let me stay. >> let me see what i can do. nothing. but let me pretend i could. see you later. more from the guest host chairman and ceo of kelly king. we're kicking off a new month of trading as we head to break. look at some stats from what was a really great january for the bulls. stamps.com is the best.
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welcome back to "squawk box," everyone. we've been watching the futures. this is something to keep an eye on today. those dow futures are up by 118 points. yesterday the dow closed at 13,860 roughly. we are within spitting distance of dow 14,000. this is coming despite the numbers that you saw with the jobs numbers that came out with those revisions. it was a strong number. and that's what the market is focusing on today, at least when you watch these stock markets. we also have a few individual
stocks on the move this morning. shares of dell rising again. talking of a deal to go private could be announced as soon as monday. weight loss resulting from the q-simian capsules help cholesterol, blood pressure and triglycerides in obese and overpeat patients. cutting its full year outlook. again, though, watch what the broad indices are doing today. our guest host this morning has been kelly king of bb & t bank. we'll give him the last word when "squawk" comes right back. taking stock of the january rally. and making the bullish occasion from february. famed investor jack vogel from the vanguard group, scott black. plus, two hours with florida governor rick scott. "squawk box" starts monday at
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